The NBA Draft Lottery may be over by the time you read this.
Why do team’s bomb to go for the Number 1 spot.
Sure, the odds for that team are better.
But let’s be honest. Since 1900, the year the Draft Lottery was founded-ish, the 2 worst-record-having teams have won a whopping 6 times.
Fact Check: The Draft Lottery began in 1985.
Fact Check 2: Since 1990, the team with the highest chances has won 4 times.
Think about that.
ONLY 4 times. That’s about 20% of the time.
They should win 25% of the time.
Now I know what you’re thinking, that’s a little low but nothing too much to worry about.
Now I don’t think anyone has compiled this stat, but I’m about 65% sure its true.
Teams with the 4th, 5th and 6th worst records of that year have a better Average Draft Position (ADP) than the top (bottom) 3 teams.
In my opinion, the Thunder (my favorite team), Minnesota T’Wolves (they were in the Lottery last year. How sad), and the Memphis Grizzlies (No comment) have much better chances that the top (bottom) 3 teams.
Good news. I thought I had no comment for the Grizzlies. But I thought of one.
So I’m going out on a limb and predicting this as the draft order.
Wizards, Kings, Thunder.
There it is.
Write it down. Or don’t. Because its already written. Right?
Now, I know what you’re thinking.
“Hey, you said 4,5,6 had better chances than 1,2,3.”
Now here’s my response.
“Because they do. But since that’s a fact and the NBA Lottery never picks those with the best chances, the Kings, Wizards and Clippers have the best chances.”
Now why did I pick like I pick?
I had to go with one of the top 3 for the 1st Pick.
Its never the one with the best shot. Its also never the Clippers. So Wiz it is.
The second pick, I’m giving the Kings the benefit of the doubt.
The 3rd, I just like the Thunder.
This seems like random babble.